The next time the NFL Draft rolls along and your
team has a high draft pick, pray they trade down.
As sexy as the high draft picks are an article in
the Yale Alumni magazine points out that Cade Massey
Assistant Professor of Organizational Behavior, Yale
School of Management finds that years of performance
data that was analyzed determined that teams are lousy
predicting which players will be stars and which won't.
Massey goes on to say that the odds of picking a star
are no better than a coin toss, and for years he has
been advising teams to trade away their first round
picks for lots of lower round picks, or more coin tosses
as he puts it. To make this point even more curious is
the fact that a team employee told Massey that the team
owner "believes you" but he just doesn't think that this
applies to him. No hint of arrogance their of course.
Hey, maybe Bill Belichick knows what he's doing after all.
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